Fallout: Donald Trump Will Fall 50-100 Delegates Short of 1,237 Needed to Clinch Nomination

[Frank Cannon]

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/04/06/donald-trump-will-fall-50-100-delegates-short-1237-needed-clinch-nomination/

Sen. Ted Cruz’s overwhelming victory in Wisconsin on Tuesday makes it all but impossible for GOP frontrunner Donald Trump to win the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination ahead of the RNC convention in Cleveland.

Trump currently leads the GOP field with 743 delegates. He would need to win 58.9 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to obtain the simple majority necessary.

A number of the states remaining award delegates proportionally. The bulk of delegates in one critical upcoming state, Pennsylvania, aren’t officially bound to any candidate. The fight for California’s massive 172 delegates will be fought largely in each of the state’s 54 Congressional Districts.

As a result, Breitbart News estimates that Donald Trump will end the primary portion of the nomination fight with 1164 delegates, 74 short of the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot. This estimate assumes Trump’s performance in upcoming contests is consistent with the results prior to Wisconsin.

In other words, it is a static estimate, assuming no great change in the trajectory, tone, or focus of the campaigns. It isn’t based on any future missteps, like those experienced by the Trump campaign ahead of the Wisconsin primary. Our assumption is, in many respects, the most optimistic for the Trump campaign. Because of this, it underscores the steep challenge Donald Trump faces heading into the 4th Quarter of the primary season.

More at link...

[Frank Cannon]

Before the bellyaching commences, this isn't some Cruz for President site. This is Trumpbart. Wisconsin was Trumps Waterloo.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Before the bellyaching commences, this isn't some Cruz for President site. This is Trumpbart. Wisconsin was Trumps Waterloo.

I would normally recommend that you refrain from posting articles from conspiracy websites like Trumpbart...but in this case I may have to go to the source to read the comments. ^-^

[Frank Cannon]

I would normally recommend that you refrain from posting articles from conspiracy websites like Trumpbart...but in this case I may have to go to the source to read the comments. ^-^

Mike Flynn is usually pretty astute about reading polling. All of his assertions seem reasonable.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Mike Flynn is usually pretty astute about reading polling. All of his assertions seem reasonable.

Of course he is and of course they do.   

[Bill Cipher]

Trump will come up short.  The mathematics is increasingly against him. As is his personality, his ego, and his campaign staff. 

[Right_in_Virginia]

Trump will come up short.  The mathematics is increasingly against him. As is his personality, his ego, and his campaign staff.

Hyperbole much?    ^-^

[Wingnut]

Trump will come up short.  The mathematics is increasingly against him. As is his personality, his ego, and his campaign staff.

The big problem for Trump is that his public perception seems to be getting worse. The number of Americans who view him unfavorably has risen more than 10 percentage points since mid-February from a 60% unfavorable to todays 70% of people who view him unfavorably.   In the past two-month stretch (that has included some of his biggest primary victories) there have been big stumbles that suggest  his campaign lacks organization and policy depth.  He is a bush league undisciplined, foul mouthed, verbally incontinent candidate.

[Frank Cannon]

Of course he is and of course they do.   

Now now. That's Trumpbart you are disparaging. If you are not careful Corey is gonna break your kneecap for that.

[Fishrrman]

Once again, I refer folks to this web site:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

Trump is currently around 93% of his target.
Ted Cruz is nowhere close.

My prediction:
If Mr. Trump arrives at the convention say, 50-100 delegates "short", he'll make a phone call to John Kasich and offer him the vice presidential slot for his delegates.

And... odds are that Kasich will take it.

That's because while Trump is a deal-maker, Kasich is but a deal-taker.
And in this case, he'll "take what he can get".

I'd prefer for Mr. Trump not to do this.
I don't want to see Kasich anywhere near the reins of power.

But sometimes a man's just gotta do.... what a man's gotta do...   ;)

[sinkspur]

Once again, I refer folks to this web site:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

Trump is currently around 93% of his target.
Ted Cruz is nowhere close.

My prediction:
If Mr. Trump arrives at the convention say, 50-100 delegates "short", he'll make a phone call to John Kasich and offer him the vice presidential slot for his delegates.

And... odds are that Kasich will take it.

That's because while Trump is a deal-maker, Kasich is but a deal-taker.
And in this case, he'll "take what he can get".

I'd prefer for Mr. Trump not to do this.
I don't want to see Kasich anywhere near the reins of power.

But sometimes a man's just gotta do.... what a man's gotta do...   ;)

Kasich thinks he will be the savior the Convention will turn to after Trump fails in the first ballot.

So, no.  Kasich will not take the VP slot and he will not relinquish his delegates to Trump. And, after the first ballot, it's every delegate for himself.

[A-Lert]

Kasich thinks he will be the savior the Convention will turn to after Trump fails in the first ballot.

So, no.  Kasich will not take the VP slot and he will not relinquish his delegates to Trump. And, after the first ballot, it's every delegate for himself.

So what milquetoast person will the GOPers put forth as the nominee?

[Frank Cannon]

Once again, I refer folks to this web site:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

Trump is currently around 93% of his target.
Ted Cruz is nowhere close.

My prediction:
If Mr. Trump arrives at the convention say, 50-100 delegates "short", he'll make a phone call to John Kasich and offer him the vice presidential slot for his delegates.

And... odds are that Kasich will take it.

First off, 538 isn't saying he has a 93% chance of winning. That is how close he is to target. He needs to win over 60% of the vote in the upcoming states to do that. Tell me which of the 8 states that's happening in. NONE.

I don't think you get it on the convention either. The GOP is united in getting interloper Trump out. Kasich is a company man. He isn't going to get involved with the pariah of the convention. Rubio has double the delegates of Kasich and he said they are not going to Trump. Cruz has gobbled up all the open delegates, is taking delegates that Trump neglected and is loading the rules committee with his people.

Trump is done because of the WI loss and he has no support in the party to cut any deals. He's officially a loser.

[A-Lert]

 Winning is losing? 

[Right_in_Virginia]

Trump is done because of the WI loss and he has no support in the party to cut any deals. He's officially a loser. 

Well, alrighty--this explains it.  Trump takes second place in WI so that's it ... the GOP is done with him.  Done!  A state that hasn't voted republican in a presidential election since 1984 --- and that's it!  I mean what would the GOP want with a candidate for POTUS who can win the South, Florida, New England and New York!

Does this even make sense to you, Frank.  Honestly, does this make sense to even you?

Trump has always been at odds with the GOP.  He knows them inside and out.  And part of his plan to make America Great Again! is to neuter all those GOP insiders who refused to stop Obama's plans to destroy the country he loves.

Wisconsin, my arse.

[Frank Cannon]

Well, alrighty--this explains it.  Trump takes second place in WI so that's it ... the GOP is done with him.  Done!  A state that hasn't voted republican in a presidential election since 1984 --- and that's it!  I mean what would the GOP want with a candidate for POTUS who can win the South, Florida, New England and New York!

Does this even make sense to you, Frank.  Honestly, does this make sense to even you?

Trump has always been at odds with the GOP.  He knows them inside and out.  And part of his plan to make America Great Again! is to neuter all those GOP insiders who refused to stop Obama's plans to destroy the country he loves.

Wisconsin, my arse.

It has nothing to do with WI. It has everything to do with delegate math. That is why you Trump supporters are going to be shocked when he has to go home after the convention to sell piss tests again.

You ask what the GOP wants with a guy that has never, and I mean not one single time, broke over the 50% mark in vote total in any single primary contest? That is absolutely pathetic. Beyond that he is getting murdered in solid red states. Just look at TX and UT.

He has been more than at odds with the GOP. He has been a full out hater. A member of the Patriot Party and cheerleader for some of the most vile leftist filth the Rats have to offer.

I hate to ruin your day here, but if you think Trump is breaking 50% in NY you are going to be disappointed. Unaffiliated voters, voters registered other than Republican/Demacrat make up a 1/3 of NY state voters. Those are the voters he is relying on to win in this closed primary state. Those voters needed to change their registration to GOP by..............October 9, 2015. No GOP registration, no voting Trump in NY. What do you want to bet that the ones who stayed registered GOP are the party faithful who want nothing to do with Trumps brand of politics?

[ArneFufkin]

It has nothing to do with WI. It has everything to do with delegate math. That is why you Trump supporters are going to be shocked when he has to go home after the convention to sell piss tests again.

You ask what the GOP wants with a guy that has never, and I mean not one single time, broke over the 50% mark in vote total in any single primary contest? That is absolutely pathetic. Beyond that he is getting murdered in solid red states. Just look at TX and UT.

He has been more than at odds with the GOP. He has been a full out hater. A member of the Patriot Party and cheerleader for some of the most vile leftist filth the Rats have to offer.

I hate to ruin your day here, but if you think Trump is breaking 50% in NY you are going to be disappointed. Unaffiliated voters, voters registered other than Republican/Demacrat make up a 1/3 of NY state voters. Those are the voters he is relying on to win in this closed primary state. Those voters needed to change their registration to GOP by..............October 9, 2015. No GOP registration, no voting Trump in NY. What do you want to bet that the ones who stayed registered GOP are the party faithful who want nothing to do with Trumps brand of politics?

Trump is a low information candidate for low information voters.

[Wingnut]

Trump is a low information candidate for low information voters.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Let me get this straight.  You spend months trashing the candidate, Donald Trump, AND his supporters---mean, personal and hateful attacks on the very people you would need to help drag your candidate over the finish line in November.    And yet you've the unmitigated gall to question Trump's plan?

 

[sinkspur]

Let me get this straight.  You spend months trashing the candidate, Donald Trump, AND his supporters---mean, personal and hateful attacks on the very people you would need to help drag your candidate over the finish line in November.    And yet you've the unmitigated gall to question Trump's plan?

What is Trump's plan?  He will lose Nebraska, Indiana, and will lose half the delegates in California.  New York won't matter when Cruz gains as many delegates in those states.

Your boy is getting beaten, badly, on the ground in the campaign to line up delegates for the second ballot.  And it's way too late for Manafort to make any difference.

[Wingnut]

Let me get this straight.  You spend months trashing the candidate, Donald Trump, AND his supporters---mean, personal and hateful attacks on the very people you would need to help drag your candidate over the finish line in November.    And yet you've the unmitigated gall to question Trump's plan?

"The very people" we need would never ever back a low class, self-promoting, foul mouthed, high-school bully, for potus.   You wanna ride the Titanic Trump ship all the way to the iceberg...by all means enjoy cruise.

[Frank Cannon]

Let me get this straight.  You spend months trashing the candidate, Donald Trump, AND his supporters---mean, personal and hateful attacks on the very people you would need to help drag your candidate over the finish line in November.    And yet you've the unmitigated gall to question Trump's plan?

Yes, because he doesn't have a plan. He can't even tell us how much the wall will cost.

[Right_in_Virginia]

"The very people" we need would never ever back a low class, self-promoting, foul mouthed, high-school bully, for potus.   

Wow, I'm guessing strategy and mathematics are not your gifts.   

[Right_in_Virginia]

Yes, because he doesn't have a plan. He can't even tell us how much the wall will cost.

He's told you over and over again how much the wall will cost.  Just listen to any one of his rallies.

Oh, you shouting at me is unnecessary.  I'm not the one who is hard of hearing.

[Wingnut]

Wow, I'm guessing strategy and mathematics are not your gifts.   

You know what my gift is?  The ability to see a vulgarian in a $2000 dollar suit for what he really is.   A poseur.