For you Trumpets: the NUMBERS!

[sinkspur]

Numbers.  As of today, 3/24

Clinton vs. Trump in polls since 3/17

Clinton:

+12 (CNN)
+10 (CBS/NYT)
+6 (Quinnipiac)
+7 (Morning Consult)
+11 (Fox News)
+18 (Bloomberg)

[DCPatriot]

Numbers.  As of today, 3/24

Clinton vs. Trump in polls since 3/17

Clinton:

+12 (CNN)
+10 (CBS/NYT)
+6 (Quinnipiac)
+7 (Morning Consult)
+11 (Fox News)
+18 (Bloomberg)

Numbers the afternoon of the Michigan primary.

Clinton vs. Sanders

+22  Clinton

Winner...Bernie Sanders

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Numbers in September 1980....Reagan vs. Carter

Carter by +16

Winner in a biblical landslide....Ronald Reagan.


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Thanks for playing.   

[sinkspur]

Numbers the afternoon of the Michigan primary.

Clinton vs. Sanders

+22  Clinton

Winner...Bernie Sanders

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Numbers in September 1980....Reagan vs. Carter

Carter by +16

Winner in a biblical landslide....Ronald Reagan.


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Thanks for playing.   

Keep telling yourself that 47 of 53 polls showing Trump losing to Clinton are all wrong.  Keep telling yourself that Trump is going to somehow turn this around as he tweets out childish rants trashing Cruz's wife. 

Does none of this embarrass you? 

And, by the way, here are the Gallup numbers for August/September 1980 (Gallup took three polls those months):

Reagan 45%         Carter 29%      Anderson   14%
Reagan 38%         Carter 39%      Anderson   13%
Reagan 39%         Carter 39%      Anderson   14%

Carter led Reagan by 25 points in March of 1980.  However, when John Anderson jumped into the race, Carter's lead was cut to 8 points.  Carter never led Reagan in any Gallup poll after July 1 of 1980.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_U.S._Presidential_elections

[aligncare]

There's been no opportunity yet for comparing and contrasting Donald Trump to Hillary Clinton in real time. That will occur in the general election campaign.

Once it's Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton standing side-by-side, there'll be no doubt in the minds of the electorate Hillary is a terrible candidate.

Unlikable and under a cloud of controversy over Benghazi, illegal email server, Clinton foundation pay-for-play, old scandals brought to the surface, two full-scale FBI investigations. Hillary is a walking disaster for the Democrats.

Trump will brand Hillary within seconds and beat her like a rented mule in November.

For all intents and purposes Hillary Clinton is the incumbent candidate:


And Carter was at least likable, though perceived as incompetent.

[Dexter]

I find it funny that polls can either be relevant or irrelevant information depending on who is using them to make what point. I personally think Donald will beat Hillary in a general election match up.

[Bill Cipher]

Numbers? Okay, numbers:

Delegate race (as of TODAY 3/24)

Trump 752
Cruz 463
Kasich 144

Trump is 289 ahead of Cruz with 893 delegates remaining

Trump needs 485 of 893
Cruz needs 774 of 893

Numbers.

Only one number matters:  1,237

All the rest is window dressing

One other number is relevant: 37%, which is about the most Donnie can get in the actual popular vote.  The delegate numbers are skewed, sometimes badly, by the winner take all states. 

[Bill Cipher]

There's been no opportunity yet for comparing and contrasting Donald Trump to Hillary Clinton in real time. That will occur in the general election campaign.

Once it's Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton standing side-by-side, there'll be no doubt in the minds of the electorate Hillary is a terrible candidate.

Unlikable and under a cloud of controversy over Benghazi, illegal email server, Clinton foundation pay-for-play, old scandals brought to the surface, two full-scale FBI investigations. Hillary is a walking disaster for the Democrats.

Trump will brand Hillary within seconds and beat her like a rented mule in November.

For all intents and purposes Hillary Clinton is the incumbent candidate:


And Carter was at least likable, though perceived as incompetent.

Hillary will wipe the floor with her BFF Donald Trump. 

[Bill Cipher]

I find it funny that polls can either be relevant or irrelevant information depending on who is using them to make what point. I personally think Donald will beat Hillary in a general election match up.

On what basis?  Individual polls may be inaccurate, but multiple polls averaged across several periods tend to approach reasonable accuracy, and that average consistently has Trump losing to Clinton, and to Sanders even!

[aligncare]

I find it funny that polls can either be relevant or irrelevant information depending on who is using them to make what point. I personally think Donald will beat Hillary in a general election match up.

She's unlikable (that plays a big part in the general election campaign). She's not Bill Clinton circa 1998, and she's under two full scale FBI investigations on her questionable activities as Secretary of State.

She will go up in smoke. Except on TBR, where it appears she has many voters-in-waiting.

[sinkspur]

There's been no opportunity yet for comparing and contrasting Donald Trump to Hillary Clinton in real time. That will occur in the general election campaign.

Once it's Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton standing side-by-side, there'll be no doubt in the minds of the electorate Hillary is a terrible candidate.

Unlikable and under a cloud of controversy over Benghazi, illegal email server, Clinton foundation pay-for-play, old scandals brought to the surface, two full-scale FBI investigations. Hillary is a walking disaster for the Democrats.

Trump will brand Hillary within seconds and beat her like a rented mule in November.

For all intents and purposes Hillary Clinton is the incumbent candidate:


And Carter was at least likable, though perceived as incompetent.

That's funny, AC.  You act as if everybody will be a blank slate the minute it's Trump vs. Clinton.  The fact is, Trump is already branded in the eyes of the public and so is Clinton.  His unfavorables are higher than hers and have been throughout, he is a known quantity, and polls indicate that over 50% of voters say they will never vote for Trump.  That is not going to change.

Plus, alongside Hillary, Trump is going to look like the incompetent he is.  She is a far better debater than he is, and he will have to answer substantive policy questions that he has, so far, shown no ability to master.

The minute he slams her looks (which is his pattern with women opponents), he's cooked.  Cable and network channels will not be able, due to campaign rules, to  let Trump simply call in and spout off whenever he wants.  Equal time prevails in the general. 

Large donors are already announcing they will not be supporting Trump with PAC ads; instead, they will pour their money into protecting down-ballot Republicans in congressional races.  So, Trump will have to make do with taxpayer money funding his campaign, or dig into his own pocket, which he has been loathe to do so far.

Trump has a big hill to climb and his numbers are not improving, as Reagan's did.  Spouting idiocies like withdrawing from NATO, reviving waterboarding,  and forcing Israel to repay its foreign aid won't help.

[sinkspur]

She's unlikable (that plays a big part in the general election campaign). She's not Bill Clinton circa 1998, and she's under two full scale FBI investigations on her questionable activities as Secretary of State.

She will go up in smoke. Except on TBR, where it appears she has many voters-in-waiting.

What do you think unfavorable numbers are, AC?  Likability.  And Trump consistently scores lower than Hillary in unfavorables.

She's bad, he's worse.

[Bill Cipher]

She's unlikable (that plays a big part in the general election campaign). She's not Bill Clinton circa 1998, and she's under two full scale FBI investigations on her questionable activities as Secretary of State.

She will go up in smoke. Except on TBR, where it appears she has many voters-in-waiting.

You say you like facts.  Ok.  Prove, with quoted posts, not self-serving assertions, how many people here have affirmatively said they will vote for Hillary.  No games; solid fact.

[sinkspur]

Donald J. Trump
‏@realDonaldTrump

N.A.T.O. is obsolete and must be changed to additionally focus on terrorism as well as some of the things it is currently focused on!


Don't you just love how specific Trump is?  Is this his high school account?

[musiclady]

I find it funny that polls can either be relevant or irrelevant information depending on who is using them to make what point. I personally think Donald will beat Hillary in a general election match up.

You're ignoring more than half of the US population with that prediction.  Women.

His incessant degrading and debasing of women is going to turn away all but the most devoted (to Trump) women.

Independent, Moderate, Conservative, Liberal.......... doesn't matter.   Donald Trump treats women like dirt, and the vast majority of women don't like being treated like dirt.

[sinkspur]

Ronald Brownstein
‏@RonBrownstein

More @realDonaldTrump warning signs: in @CNN poll his unfavorables w/ all reg voters soar to 82% non-white, 79% college grads, 73% women


So, basically, Trump's supporters are mostly uneducated white men.

[Dexter]

On what basis?  Individual polls may be inaccurate, but multiple polls averaged across several periods tend to approach reasonable accuracy, and that average consistently has Trump losing to Clinton, and to Sanders even!

Those poll numbers could easily change dramatically when everybody is over the primaries and it's time to contrast Hillary and Donald.

[aligncare]

Those poll numbers could easily change dramatically when everybody is over the primaries and it's time to contrast Hillary and Donald.

Exactly. Primaries are about ideology, purity, party bullshit. The general election is a different universe of concerns. Different audience, different concerns. Donald Trump will beat any Democrat in November, and especially Hillary Clinton.

[Bill Cipher]

Exactly. Primaries are about ideology, purity, party bullshit. The general election is a different universe of concerns. Different audience, different concerns. Donald Trump will beat any Democrat in November, and especially Hillary Clinton.

Why?  Because he's winning the intraparty ideology contest?  Your own words belie the conclusion. 

[aligncare]

The universe that occupies the middle of American politics, that area outside of political fora and beltway politics, is unconcerned about your purity tests or your candidate's detailed understanding of chapter and verse of the constitution.

They want proven, decisive, independent leaders - if not necessarily the perfect "conservative" candidate.

Unfortunately, Ted Cruz reeks of ambition – like first-term senator Barack Obama did. And by accepting a deal with the devil, by accepting establishment infrastructure, the donor money, the superPAC sleaze, the RNC/National Review cabal and the Bush and Romney people, etc, he lost any chance with me.

Ted Cruz is tainted. I'd be forced to vote for him in November, but that's about it.

Trust me, that's my learned opinion on the subject. Don't waste your time with me.

[aligncare]

[sneakypete]

There's been no opportunity yet for comparing and contrasting Donald Trump to Hillary Clinton in real time. That will occur in the general election campaign.

Once it's Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton standing side-by-side, there'll be no doubt in the minds of the electorate Hillary is a terrible candidate.

LOL! Trump is the opponent of her dreams. Maybe the ONLY one she can really beat. He is such a buffoon and spoiled child he will make even Bubbette! look thoughtful and considerate by comparison.

This is a 70 year old man who is still so insecure he gets on national television and talks about the size of his penis!

[sneakypete]

Spouting idiocies like withdrawing from NATO, reviving waterboarding,  and forcing Israel to repay its foreign aid won't help.

Trump is spot on when he says it's time to make Israel pay it's foreign aid debts. Not only that,but it's past time to cut off foreign aid for Israel,period. If they need or want something we have,they should have to  buy it using their own damn money.

[aligncare]

Well, then it appears we disagree. Have a nice day!  ^-^

[sneakypete]

The universe that occupies the middle of American politics, that area outside of political fora and beltway politics, is unconcerned about your purity tests or your candidate's detailed understanding of chapter and verse of the constitution.

They want proven, decisive, independent leaders - if not necessarily the perfect "conservative" candidate.

Un,huh. And they proved that by voting for Bubba Bill twice,Boy Jorge Bush Twice,and Bathhouse Barry twice.

You might want to rethink your mantra.

[17 Oaks]

You're ignoring more than half of the US population with that prediction.  Women.

His incessant degrading and debasing of women is going to turn away all but the most devoted (to Trump) women.

Independent, Moderate, Conservative, Liberal.......... doesn't matter.   Donald Trump treats women like dirt, and the vast majority of women don't like being treated like dirt.

How many women in America think Trumps YOUNG, HOT & SMOKIN wife appearing in a nude layout in a magazine are gonna pull the one armed bandit for Trump in the ballot box.  I can tell you right now that most American women do not and will not identify with his wife.



Bill Cipher wrote:  "[size=78%]On what basis?  Individual polls may be inaccurate, but multiple polls averaged across several periods tend to approach reasonable accuracy, and that average consistently has Trump losing to Clinton, and to Sanders even!"[/size]
[/size]
[/size][size=78%]Reasonable accuracy....how about real accuracy.  One of my Profs in college had us round off our checking account, check book entries to the nearest dollar for 2 [/size][size=78%]monthly[/size][size=78%] cycles.  Then on a given day he asked us how close were were at the end of the month to our bank balance we pulled from the bank.  You guessed it +/- $1 dollar.  Then we did same for the next mo rounding off to the nearest .50 cents, then he asked for closeness to bank balance.  WOW, almost all were within .10 cents and several of us where within a .01 (penny).  Then what he told us was interesting.  He said those that are within 1 penny had more checks written than those within .50 cents.  The more cycles you go thru the more accurate it becomes.  Well that was back in college and for all of my adult life that I [/size][size=78%]primarily[/size][size=78%] wrote checks.  Tough to beat the laws of averages over time and cycles.[/size][size=78%]