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Author Topic: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina  (Read 4347 times)

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Offline libertybele

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Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« on: February 19, 2016, 01:51:32 pm »
South Carolina poll: Cruz gaining on Trump, Clinton ahead

 (CNN)Though Donald Trump continues to lead heading in to South Carolina's primary Saturday, a new poll suggests his support could be fading in the campaign's final days.

According to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey released Friday, the billionaire businessman leads the Republican race in the Palmetto State with 28% support. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is in second at 23%.

Trump's lead is narrower than other polls of South Carolina Republicans have shown. A CNN poll of polls from Thursday had the average Trump lead over Cruz in recent polls at 16 percentage points, and a Fox News poll conducted on the same days as the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll found Trump up 13 percentage points over Cruz.

In Friday's poll, Rubio trails in third with 15%, just ahead of Jeb Bush at 13%. John Kasich and Bern Carson are tied with 9%.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/19/politics/south-carolina-poll-donald-trump-ted-cruz-nbc-wsj/
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Offline Sanguine

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2016, 02:14:38 pm »
 :beer: :beer:
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Offline andy58-in-nh

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2016, 02:21:07 pm »
Some interesting days lie immediately ahead.  :0001:
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Online jmyrlefuller

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2016, 02:54:35 pm »
Same pollster as the last one that shows Trump trailing nationwide.

Trump supporters will promptly ignore it, just like all evidence against Their Guy.
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Offline Longiron

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2016, 04:09:10 pm »
Quote from: jmyrlefuller on February 19, 2016, 02:54:35 pm
Same pollster as the last one that shows Trump trailing nationwide.

Trump supporters will promptly ignore it, just like all evidence against Their Guy.

Going to point out that WSJ is owned by Faux News  owned by the same RUBIO sniffer but you would not understand the connection. The HATERS will see it the way they want to! DO NOT vote TRUMP. He does not need LOSERS! 13859
« Last Edit: February 19, 2016, 04:09:43 pm by Longiron »
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Offline sinkspur

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2016, 04:16:49 pm »
Quote from: Longiron on February 19, 2016, 04:09:10 pm
Going to point out that WSJ is owned by Faux News  owned by the same RUBIO sniffer but you would not understand the connection. The HATERS will see it the way they want to! DO NOT vote TRUMP. He does not need LOSERS! 13859

I intend to follow your advice both in the primary and, if he's the nominee, in the general.
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Offline Bigun

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2016, 04:20:02 pm »
Something no one here should ever forget is the FACT that people can and do tell pollsters anything but when they actually get in that voting booth it gets real!
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Offline aligncare

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2016, 04:25:46 pm »
Quote from: jmyrlefuller on February 19, 2016, 02:54:35 pm
Same pollster as the last one that shows Trump trailing nationwide.

Trump supporters will promptly ignore it, just like all evidence against Their Guy.

This ain't just an outlier, it's a push poll intended to drive a narrative.

Do you have evidence, or any data that shows Cruz is actually on the verge of overtaking Trump in South Carolina?

I'll wait....
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Offline sinkspur

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #8 on: February 19, 2016, 04:30:08 pm »
Quote from: aligncare on February 19, 2016, 04:25:46 pm
This ain't just an outlier, it's a push poll intended to drive a narrative.

Do you have evidence, or any data that shows Cruz is actually on the verge of overtaking Trump in South Carolina?

I'll wait....

The pollsters are Geoff Garin and Bill McInturff, two of the most respected pollsters in the business.  They may be wrong, but they may not be, given they're finding a trend.
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Offline Bigun

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #9 on: February 19, 2016, 04:32:45 pm »
Quote from: sinkspur on February 19, 2016, 04:30:08 pm
The pollsters are Geoff Garin and Bill McInturff, two of the most respected pollsters in the business.  They may be wrong, but they may not be, given they're finding a trend.

I suspect that they have simply stopped so highly overweighting their poll  with Democrats.  That alone would do it.
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Offline Bigun

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #10 on: February 19, 2016, 04:54:28 pm »
Quote from: cuky on February 19, 2016, 04:33:39 pm
I would love to see 1 on 1 polls of Trump vs Cruz or Trump vs Rubio did get a real sense of who has  the greater backing. So few delegates have been chosen and the media will not look at the scenario when there is just Trump and one or two left in the GOP.

This gets kind of close.

From the internals of the most recent Fox News poll:

8. And which Republican would be your second choice?

                        First choice      Second choice     Without Trump Without Cruz
Donald Trump    36%                    11%                        N/A             40%
Ted Cruz             19                       20                          32%            N/A
Marco Rubio       15                       27                           23               23
Ben Carson         9                        11                           13               13
Jeb Bush             9                         7                            11               10
John Kasich         8                       11                           13                8

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/02/18/fox-news-poll-national-presidential-race-february-18-2016/
« Last Edit: February 19, 2016, 04:54:56 pm by Bigun »
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"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien

Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #11 on: February 19, 2016, 05:05:46 pm »
February 19, 2016:  EMERSON POLL:  TRUMP EXTENDS HIS LEAD IN SOUTH CAROLIINA; RUBIO PASSES CRUZ IN FIGHT FOR SECOND

In the final day of the three-day tracking poll in South Carolina, momentum is favoring Donald Trump, who leads the Republican contest with 36% of likely primary voters, up 3 points since Tuesday.  Marco Rubio (19%) and Ted Cruz (18%) remain locked in a battle for second. 

Cruz has seen a 2-point drop since Tuesday while Rubio has stayed at 19%.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f9d8e10c8831404e9ea2f1af759d1426.pdf
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Offline Longiron

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #12 on: February 19, 2016, 05:08:43 pm »
Quote from: Right_in_Virginia on February 19, 2016, 05:05:46 pm
February 19, 2016:  EMERSON POLL:  TRUMP EXTENDS HIS LEAD IN SOUTH CAROLIINA; RUBIO PASSES CRUZ IN FIGHT FOR SECOND

In the final day of the three-day tracking poll in South Carolina, momentum is favoring Donald Trump, who leads the Republican contest with 36% of likely primary voters, up 3 points since Tuesday.  Marco Rubio (19%) and Ted Cruz (18%) remain locked in a battle for second. 

Cruz has seen a 2-point drop since Tuesday while Rubio has stayed at 19%.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f9d8e10c8831404e9ea2f1af759d1426.pdf

 :whistle:   :beer:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html
« Last Edit: February 19, 2016, 05:09:19 pm by Longiron »
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Offline katzenjammer

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #13 on: February 19, 2016, 05:16:14 pm »
Quote from: sinkspur on February 19, 2016, 04:30:08 pm
The pollsters are Geoff Garin and Bill McInturff, two of the most respected pollsters in the business.  They may be wrong, but they may not be, given they're finding a trend.

Do Garin and McInturff now work for Anderson Robbins Research or Shaw & Company Research? 

Here is the poll in question:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/299706042/Fox-Poll-South-Carolina-02-18-16

Quote
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers February 15-17, 2016 among a random state sample of 1,401 likely South Carolina primary voters. Respondents were screened to identify likely primary voters. Results for the 642 likely Democratic primary voters have a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points and results for the 759 likely Republican  primary voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Landline (763) and cellphone (638) numbers were randomly selected from a statewide voter file of registered South Carolina voters using a probability proportionate to size method. This simply means that phone numbers are proportionally representative to the number of voters in all regions across the state of South Carolina. Fieldwork conducted by Braun Research, Inc. of Princeton, NJ.
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #14 on: February 19, 2016, 05:16:31 pm »
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Offline sinkspur

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #15 on: February 19, 2016, 05:37:59 pm »
Quote from: katzenjammer on February 19, 2016, 05:16:14 pm
Do Garin and McInturff now work for Anderson Robbins Research or Shaw & Company Research? 

Here is the poll in question:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/299706042/Fox-Poll-South-Carolina-02-18-16

Not a FOXNEWS poll.  It's WSJ/NBC poll.
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Offline Jazzhead

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #16 on: February 19, 2016, 05:49:38 pm »
Quote from: Longiron on February 19, 2016, 04:09:10 pm
Going to point out that WSJ is owned by Faux News  owned by the same RUBIO sniffer but you would not understand the connection. The HATERS will see it the way they want to! DO NOT vote TRUMP. He does not need LOSERS! 13859


Shill.
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Offline andy58-in-nh

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #17 on: February 19, 2016, 05:49:58 pm »
Some detail from the Emerson poll.

Trump Name Recognition:                    
                       Frequency    Percent
Favorable             182             43.5   
Unfavorable       207             49.5
Undecided             27                6.5
Never heard of        2                  .5
Total                   418            100.0   
 
Basically, this would tend to indicate that Trump's supporters (36% of the sample) are highly loyal. Conversely, a high percentage of those who don't intend to vote for him pretty much hate his guts.

Assuming all of those who intend to vote for Trump have a favorable opinion of him, they would seem to account for at least 82.75% of his "favorables" in the sample. Assuming that to be (self-evidently) true, then the remaining 64% of respondents who do not intend to vote for Trump would have a cumulative favorable/unfavorable or undecided split of 7.5%/92.5% toward Trump.   
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"The most terrifying force of death, comes from the hands of Men who wanted to be left Alone. They try, so very hard, to mind their own business and provide for themselves and those they love. They resist every impulse to fight back, knowing the forced and permanent change of life that will come from it. They know, that the moment they fight back, their lives as they have lived them, are over. -Alexander Solzhenitsyn

Offline katzenjammer

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #18 on: February 19, 2016, 05:54:20 pm »
Quote from: sinkspur on February 19, 2016, 05:37:59 pm
Not a FOXNEWS poll.  It's WSJ/NBC poll.

My mistake, I thought that we were discussing today's FNC SC poll!  Thank you.
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Offline Jazzhead

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #19 on: February 19, 2016, 06:07:38 pm »
Quote from: andy58-in-nh on February 19, 2016, 05:49:58 pm
Some detail from the Emerson poll.

Trump Name Recognition:                    
                       Frequency    Percent
Favorable             182             43.5   
Unfavorable       207             49.5
Undecided             27                6.5
Never heard of        2                  .5
Total                   418            100.0   
 
Basically, this would tend to indicate that Trump's supporters (36% of the sample) are highly loyal. Conversely, a high percentage of those who don't intend to vote for him pretty much hate his guts.

Assuming all of those who intend to vote for Trump have a favorable opinion of him, they would seem to account for at least 82.75% of his "favorables" in the sample. Assuming that to be (self-evidently) true, then the remaining 64% of respondents who do not intend to vote for Trump would have a cumulative favorable/unfavorable or undecided split of 7.5%/92.5% toward Trump.

I've seen other polling that suggests that most Trump supporters do not intend to support any other Republican candidate.  They are for Trump or they'll stay home.   That's why he should be running as an independent.   His supporters are the furthest thing from being Republicans, let alone party loyalists.  They seek, in effect, a hostile takeover of the GOP.   The RNC should have the wherewithall to resist this incursion,  because if Trump's the nominee, millions of the rest of us will kiss the GOP goodbye for good, because the party will have lost its soul.     
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Offline aligncare

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #20 on: February 19, 2016, 06:31:48 pm »
An election is not a hostile takeover, it's an election. It's the party base indicating a preference. It's representative democracy in action. Don't like it? Well, then get a stronger candidate to run for office against the candidates you don't like.
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Offline Jazzhead

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #21 on: February 19, 2016, 06:52:38 pm »
Quote from: aligncare on February 19, 2016, 06:31:48 pm
An election is not a hostile takeover, it's an election. It's the party base indicating a preference. It's representative democracy in action. Don't like it? Well, then get a stronger candidate to run for office against the candidates you don't like.

I don't disagree with respect to the general election.  Let Trump run as an independent, and let the chips fall where they made.   I don't want him to be the face of my party.  I will not reconcile with Trump or Trumpism, and the bigoted Know-Nothingism it represents.  If he's the nominee, may God help the Republican party,  because I sure as hell won't.   
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Offline aligncare

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #22 on: February 19, 2016, 07:38:01 pm »
Quote from: Jazzhead on February 19, 2016, 06:52:38 pm
I don't disagree with respect to the general election.  Let Trump run as an independent, and let the chips fall where they made.   I don't want him to be the face of my party.  I will not reconcile with Trump or Trumpism, and the bigoted Know-Nothingism it represents.  If he's the nominee, may God help the Republican party,  because I sure as hell won't.

Well, I'd love to help you fulfill your fantasies; but I don't know the man and have no influence on his decision making whatsoever. Talk to the RNC. Maybe they got an in with the man.
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Offline NavyCanDo

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #23 on: February 19, 2016, 07:47:09 pm »
The only poll that matters to me right now is the Head to Head matchups between Trump, Rubio, and  Cruz against Clinton


Trump vs. Clinton     Clinton +2.8
Cruz vs. Clinton        Cruz +0.8
Rubio vs. Clinton      Rubio +4.7


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

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Offline Bigun

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Re: Cruz Gaining In Polls in South Carolina
« Reply #24 on: February 19, 2016, 07:56:43 pm »
Quote from: NavyCanDo on February 19, 2016, 07:47:09 pm
The only poll that matters to me right now is the Head to Head matchups between Trump, Rubio, and  Cruz against Clinton


Trump vs. Clinton     Clinton +2.8
Cruz vs. Clinton        Cruz +0.8
Rubio vs. Clinton      Rubio +4.7


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

The only polls of any real interest to me at the moment are the ones which will occur In South Carolina tomorrow and Nevada on Tuesday.
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"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J. R. R. Tolkien
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