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"most polls"? You mean polls of self-identified conservatives? The traditional conservative is a dying breed in the US, so 51% of a tiny minority bears no relationship to how the rest of the population feels.
No, I mean polls of likely Republican voters. He has held the lead almost from the beginning. Are you saying all of the other voters that don't favor him are going to coalesce into one monolithic voting block? That they're just not going to vote?Or maybe they will swallow hard and pull the lever for the last man standing - like I have had to do many times?
"Likely republican voters" doesn't capture the entire voting population. Getting 51% of republicans doesn't mean jack-sh*t if he gets 1% of everyone else.