Election model predicts Dem will win

[mystery-ak]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/250367-election-model-predicts-nail-biter-in-2016

August 05, 2015, 05:26 pm
Election model predicts Dem will win

By Vicki Needham

A Democrat will win the White House next year by the narrowest of margins, according to a well-known election forecaster.

Moody’s Analytics is predicting that the Democratic presidential nominee will capture 270 electoral votes in 2016, edging out the Republican nominee’s total of 268.

The model from Moody's, a group that analyzes economic trends, has a perfect track record, accurately predicting every presidential election since 1980; it nailed the number of electoral votes in President Obama's 2012 victory.

The economics-based election model — which relies on presidential election results since the 1980 Ronald Reagan-Jimmy Carter contest — aims to predict voting decisions based on each state’s economic and political situation.

Moody’s will update its prediction each month in the run-up to November 2016.

Overall, the most important economic variable in the model is income growth in the two years leading up to the election.

Wage growth has been tepid this year, though it is expected to pick up as the job market approaches full employment.

But while income growth favors the incumbent party, politics matter plenty, giving the Republicans a boost.

In swing states, the share of the vote that goes to the incumbent party is about 50 percent, and economic and other factors can swing the vote to either party. The key swing states for 2016 include Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Voter fatigue could weigh heavily against the Democratic nominee. Several swing states would be inclined vote to for the Democrat if not for the two terms President Obama has spent in the White House, Moody’s said.

The direction of president’s approval rating could also make a meaningful difference.

If Obama's approval rating improves leading up to the election, he will probably give his party a boost. But in most elections, the president’s rating has declined in the lead-up to the election, favoring the challengers.

The Moody’s model assumes that Obama’s approval rating will be the same on Election Day as it is today.

[truth_seeker]

I entirely concur. The "base" of the GOP demands a candidate that holds viewpoints contrary to the majority of voters, bottom line.

Holding the Senate will also be a problem for the GOP.

As the country moves away from traditional GOP positions, the GOP has yet to adapt, adjust.

[andy58-in-nh]

I entirely concur. The "base" of the GOP demands a candidate that holds viewpoints contrary to the majority of voters, bottom line.

Holding the Senate will also be a problem for the GOP.

As the country moves away from traditional GOP positions, the GOP has yet to adapt, adjust.

That's right.

Morality, virtue, honor, patriotism, self-sufficiency, traditional families, limited government, individual achievement, and national sovereignty are obviously out of favor.

We need to abandon them quickly, before we're left in the dustbin of history.

[musiclady]

That's right.

Morality, virtue, honor, patriotism, self-sufficiency, traditional families, limited government, individual achievement, and national sovereignty are obviously out of favor.

We need to abandon them quickly, before we're left in the dustbin of history.

Nicely done! 

[libertybele]

That's right.

Morality, virtue, honor, patriotism, self-sufficiency, traditional families, limited government, individual achievement, and national sovereignty are obviously out of favor.

We need to abandon them quickly, before we're left in the dustbin of history.

Excellent response.   

[ABX]

That's right.

Morality, virtue, honor, patriotism, self-sufficiency, traditional families, limited government, individual achievement, and national sovereignty are obviously out of favor.

We need to abandon them quickly, before we're left in the dustbin of history.

Sadly Andy, I agree with you. Not just from casual observation, but from professional observation. Morality is replaced with Anti-Bullying messages. Virtue is equated with older generations. Honor and Patriotism are nationalistic oppression. Self-sufficiency, individual achievement and limited government are Greed. Traditional families are non diverse. And National Sovereignty is nationalistic racism.

This isn't just personal observation of the Orwellian twisting of language and virtues, this is what I am personally seeing in corporate training programs being pushed by outside activist groups. It is sold as appealing to millennials and the upcoming workforce, but in reality, it is normalizing a politically correct, progressive(sic) world view by activist groups.

If I ever win the lottery (I don't play) and ever want to be a whistle-blower on what is going on in the largest corporations in training(indoctrinating) their employees and working on creating a memeview of the world, I could write several books. If you think public-government schools are bad, wait until you see what is going on to mold minds in the corporate education side of the world.

[EdinVA]

If you say it loud enough and long enough, they will believe!   

[andy58-in-nh]

Sadly Andy, I agree with you. Not just from casual observation, but from professional observation. Morality is replaced with Anti-Bullying messages. Virtue is equated with older generations. Honor and Patriotism are nationalistic oppression. Self-sufficiency, individual achievement and limited government are Greed. Traditional families are non diverse. And National Sovereignty is nationalistic racism.

This isn't just personal observation of the Orwellian twisting of language and virtues, this is what I am personally seeing in corporate training programs being pushed by outside activist groups. It is sold as appealing to millennials and the upcoming workforce, but in reality, it is normalizing a politically correct, progressive(sic) world view by activist groups.

If I ever win the lottery (I don't play) and ever want to be a whistle-blower on what is going on in the largest corporations in training(indoctrinating) their employees and working on creating a memeview of the world, I could write several books. If you think public-government schools are bad, wait until you see what is going on to mold minds in the corporate education side of the world.

I'm sure you know I was being purposefully facetious, and that the abandonment of American values and articulate support for them is the very last thing I'd counsel.

I am well aware from first-hand experience about how corporations are being cowed by politically powerful groups to adopt Progressive "values"... or else. In most cases, they choose the easy way out, which is to go along and get along, because fighting the tide costs money. Better to surrender and maintain short-term profitability rather than fight and keep your soul. At least, that's what most companies under the boot heel of the State choose to do these days.

Rebellion and revolt against what one believes is morally, ethically and logically wrong is not likely to produce glowing quarterly reports. But I maintain that there is a growing and largely untapped market for the loyalty of consumers who are tired of supporting those who refuse to stand up for them, their values, their rights, and their freedom. 

It starts with the courage first to say that there is such a thing as objective truth, to tell the truth as you believe it to be, and to bravely defend your opinions in the face of bullies who will try to silence you. Corporations by their nature as hierarchical enterprises are ill-equipped to sustain such assaults. But individuals and company leaders, are. 

[Oceander]

When democrat/liberal election fraud is factored in, of course.