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Author Topic: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate  (Read 1197 times)

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Offline truth_seeker

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Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« on: September 16, 2014, 08:40:46 pm »
Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/09/16/democrats-now-have-a-51-percent-chance-of-holding-the-senate/

Democrats are now (very slightly) favored to hold the Senate majority on Nov. 4, according to Election Lab, the Post's statistical model of the 2014 midterm elections.

Election Lab puts Democrats' chances of retaining their majority at 51 percent --  a huge change from even a few months ago when the model predicted that Republicans had a better than 80 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control. (Worth noting: When the model showed Republicans as overwhelming favorites, our model builders -- led by George Washington University's John Sides -- warned that the model could and would change as more actual polling -- as opposed to historical projections -- played a larger and larger role in the calculations. And, in Republicans' defense, no one I talked to ever thought they had an 80 percent chance of winning the majority.)

So, what exactly has changed to move the Election Lab projection? Three big things:

* Colorado: On August 27 -- the last time I wrote a big piece on the model -- Election Lab said Sen. Mark Udall (D) had a 64 percent chance of winning. Today he has a 94 percent chance.

* Iowa: Two weeks ago, the model gave state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) a 72 percent chance of winning. Today she has a 59 percent chance.

* Kansas: Sen. Pat Roberts' (R) re-election race wasn't even on the radar on Aug. 27. Today, Election Lab predicts he has just a 68 percent chance of winning.

In addition to that trio of moves in Democrats' direction, Louisiana has moved slightly in Democrats' favor (from a 57 percent chance of losing to a 53 percent chance) as has North Carolina (a 97 percent chance of winning now as opposed to a 92 percent chance on Aug. 27).

snip---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I truly hope that this is wrong. But I'm not truly convinced the GOP will take the Senate. The latest polls showing Orman leading in Kansas pushed me to this concern.
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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2014, 08:47:00 pm »
I don't think Roberts can win in Kansas....
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Online DCPatriot

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Re: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2014, 08:51:00 pm »
This is total bullsh*t.....or the fix is in.
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Offline Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2014, 11:01:28 pm »
Quote from: DCPatriot on September 16, 2014, 08:51:00 pm
This is total bullsh*t.....or the fix is in.

Next week it'll be Democrats have a 60% of holding the Senate.   **nononono*

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Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2014, 11:27:10 pm »
Win the Senate, or lose the republic.

The choice is yours, GOP.
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Offline Relic

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Re: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2014, 11:58:53 pm »
The GOP thinks that running as being "not a Democrat" is a winning strategy.

The GOP is wrong.
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Offline massadvj

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Re: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2014, 12:36:43 am »
I have been watching these races.  It looks like Michigan, Colorado and Oregon are unwinnable.  North Carolina is a longshot.  Kansas is turning into a tossup.  Louisiana, Georgia and Arkansas look good.  On the plus side, Scott Brown has been making inroads in New Hampshire.  At most, the GOP could get to 52 seats, but they seem to be snatching defeat from victory by failing to articulate a vision.
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Offline Relic

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Re: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2014, 12:39:57 am »
Quote from: massadvj on September 17, 2014, 12:36:43 am
I have been watching these races.  It looks like Michigan, Colorado and Oregon are unwinnable.  North Carolina is a longshot.  Kansas is turning into a tossup.  Louisiana, Georgia and Arkansas look good.  On the plus side, Scott Brown has been making inroads in New Hampshire.  At most, the GOP could get to 52 seats, but they seem to be snatching defeat from victory by failing to articulate a vision.

You can't articulate what you don't have.
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Offline andy58-in-nh

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Re: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2014, 01:00:29 am »
Quote from: Relic on September 17, 2014, 12:39:57 am
You can't articulate what you don't have.

The problem with the GOP used to be that they lacked the courage of their convictions. Now, it appears they lack both.

It's not easy to stand up to a one-party news media and a thoroughly hostile culture dominated by the philosophically barren and the historically ignorant. But one does it nonetheless, provided that you actually believe in something beyond a shallow desire for elective office.

Civilizations in decline are characterized by, among other things, a political environment wherein clever and manipulative liars are everywhere ascendant, while otherwise virtuous men fear the necessity of giving voice to obvious but unpopular truths.

And thus, they get the government they richly deserve: one that makes the people willing slaves to their own vices.
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Offline Bigun

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Re: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2014, 01:04:38 am »
Quote
It's not easy to stand up to a one-party news media and a thoroughly hostile culture dominated by the philosophically barren and the historically ignorant. But one does it nonetheless, provided that you actually believe in something beyond a shallow desire for elective office.

There used to be a few of those in Washington. Now it's like looking for hens teeth I'm afraid.
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Offline kevindavis007

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Re: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2014, 01:04:43 am »
I"m not worried.. It wasn't going to be easy.. It means we have to get out and work... Also I would like to know the sample..
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Offline Lando Lincoln

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Re: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2014, 01:05:01 am »
Quote from: andy58-in-nh on September 17, 2014, 01:00:29 am
The problem with the GOP used to be that they lacked the courage of their convictions. Now, it appears they lack both.

It's not easy to stand up to a one-party news media and a thoroughly hostile culture dominated by the philosophically barren and the historically ignorant. But one does it nonetheless, provided that you actually believe in something beyond a shallow desire for elective office.

Civilizations in decline are characterized by, among other things, a political environment wherein clever and manipulative liars are everywhere ascendant, while otherwise virtuous men fear the necessity of giving voice to obvious but unpopular truths.

And thus, they get the government they richly deserve: one that makes the people willing slaves to their own vices.

Well said.
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Offline Bigun

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Re: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2014, 01:11:12 am »
Quote
Civilizations in decline are characterized by, among other things, a political environment wherein clever and manipulative liars are everywhere ascendant, while otherwise virtuous men fear the necessity of giving voice to obvious but unpopular truths.


“Republics are created by the virtue, public spirit, and intelligence of the citizens. They fall, when the wise are banished from the public councils, because they dare to be honest, and the profligate are rewarded, because they flatter the people, in order to betray them.”

Joseph Story, Commentaries on the Constitution, 1833
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Offline Millee

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Re: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2014, 02:16:09 am »
Quote from: massadvj on September 17, 2014, 12:36:43 am
I have been watching these races.  It looks like Michigan, Colorado and Oregon are unwinnable.  North Carolina is a longshot.  Kansas is turning into a tossup.  Louisiana, Georgia and Arkansas look good.  On the plus side, Scott Brown has been making inroads in New Hampshire.  At most, the GOP could get to 52 seats, but they seem to be snatching defeat from victory by failing to articulate a vision.

All the anti-Gardner ads I've seen in CO focus on birth control and abortion.  Makes me ashamed of my gender.  :chairbang:
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Offline Fishrrman

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Re: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2014, 02:16:38 am »
Quote from: mystery-ak on September 16, 2014, 08:47:00 pm
I don't think Roberts can win in Kansas....

He's going down.
Probably along with McConnell in Kentucky.

There were credible challengers in the primaries, and the gop-e types (a few of them right in this forum) pushed the old incumbents as the only choice.

We're going to see how sound that logic actually was.

If the GOP fails to win the Senate in November -- in a political environment where even the New York Times publishes an op-ed piece about how things in America are just falling apart -- this will be a harbinger of the losses the Republicans are going to endure in 2016.

It will mark the beginning of the decline of the Republican party as a party of national influence, a party no longer able to compete and win on the presidential level or on a level of being to influence national policy.

And… as the Republican party fades from the scene, it will become time for a new party to emerge...
« Last Edit: September 17, 2014, 02:19:25 am by Fishrrman »
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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2014, 02:31:36 am »
Quote from: Fishrrman on September 17, 2014, 02:16:38 am
He's going down.
Probably along with McConnell in Kentucky.

There were credible challengers in the primaries, and the gop-e types (a few of them right in this forum) pushed the old incumbents as the only choice.

We're going to see how sound that logic actually was.

If the GOP fails to win the Senate in November -- in a political environment where even the New York Times publishes an op-ed piece about how things in America are just falling apart -- this will be a harbinger of the losses the Republicans are going to endure in 2016.

It will mark the beginning of the decline of the Republican party as a party of national influence, a party no longer able to compete and win on the presidential level or on a level of being to influence national policy.

And… as the Republican party fades from the scene, it will become time for a new party to emerge...

Exactly....I had a feeling this would happen with Roberts....too bad we couldn't offer the voters in Kansas a fresh face with new ideas....looks like that fresh face is Orman....
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Offline Formerly Once-Ler

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Re: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2014, 05:19:37 am »
The rats are spending millions on attack ads instead of defining their candidates.  That is hurting the GOP brand but it isn't helping the Obama sycophant brand.  It is a desperate strategy to keep the campaign money flowing.  People don't give to a sure loser.  Recent polls do not dim my optimism.
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Offline Relic

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Re: Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate
« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2014, 12:45:07 pm »
Quote from: Once-Ler on September 17, 2014, 05:19:37 am
The rats are spending millions on attack ads instead of defining their candidates.  That is hurting the GOP brand but it isn't helping the Obama sycophant brand.  It is a desperate strategy to keep the campaign money flowing.  People don't give to a sure loser.  Recent polls do not dim my optimism.

Optimism is an admirable trait. However, reality is harsh, and I fear November will be a reality check.
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