Japan will lose a war against China if it continues to underestimate the capability of the People's Liberation Army, according to Buntaro Kuroi, a Japanese military expert, in a recent article written for the Tokyo-based Nikkan Spa magazine.
In the article, Kuroi stated that there is much speculation on what will happen if Japan goes to war against China regarding Beijing's Nov.23 announcement of its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea. He claims that Japan will definitely lose a full scale war against China since the latter is currently the world's second largest military spender, and Japan can be defeated and destroyed as a national state within a second, even without the use of nuclear weapons.
Kuroi added that Japan is still able to win a local conflict with China over the waters of the disputed Diaoyutai islands (Diaoyu to China, Senkaku to Japan). However, if the conflict were to expand and cover the entire Ryukyu island chain, known in Japanese as the Nansei islands, Kuroi said it would be very hard to determine which side would emerge as the final victor.
Meanwhile, the surface combat vessels of the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force are more advanced than PLA Navy's, but Kuroi stressed that most Japanese military personnel do not want to fight China without the involvement of the United States.
Kuroi said that it is also too early to conclude whether Japan's F-15J fighter is capable of defeating the Chinese J-11 and Su-30, while adding that China is unlikely to wait until the Japan Air Self Defense Force enters its fifth generation F-35 fighter in 2016 to launch a potential war against Japan. It is therefore vital that Japanese military leaders do not underestimate China's military capability, he said
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